Place a risk
Likelihood × impact
Impact rises upwards; likelihood rises to the right. Each square shows its score and all risks placed there.
| Impact ↑ / Likelihood → | 1 · Rare | 2 · Unlikely | 3 · Possible | 4 · Likely | 5 · Almost certain |
|---|
Low: 1–5 Moderate: 6–15 High: 16–25
These bands belong to this example. They are not universal risk-acceptance thresholds.
Risk register
No risks placed yet. Add your first risk or try the materials example.
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Score & band | Change |
|---|
Your entries stay in this page only; reloading starts a new workshop.
How to read this matrix
- Agree the scales first. Here, likelihood runs from rare (1) to almost certain (5), and impact from minimal (1) to severe (5). For a real discussion, agree a time horizon and what each consequence rating means.
- Multiply the two ratings. Likelihood × impact gives this tool’s score. The upper-right cells have both high likelihood and high impact. The band helps organise discussion about mitigation, contingency and monitoring.
- Keep the event visible. Place each named risk and revisit its assessment. A shared cell can contain several different events; one does not replace another.
Try: delayed materials
A likelihood of 3 and impact of 5 gives 15: Moderate under this tool’s rules. It sits in the top row, middle column. Raise likelihood to 4 and the score becomes 20: High. Discuss buffer scheduling or contingency planning in either case; a severe consequence still deserves attention.
What the score leaves out
The numbers here are ordered ratings, not measured probabilities or currency. A score of 20 does not mean twice the expected loss of 10. The same score can also hide different combinations, such as 1 × 5 and 5 × 1. Read both axes and the event description before choosing a response.
This simple grid does not model uncertainty, linked risks, existing controls or risk appetite. For a fuller assessment, consider those alongside likelihood and consequences. HM Treasury’s Orange Book describes these wider assessment considerations.