How uncertain task durations change the finish

1. Inspect the sample and set a start date if you want calendar dates. Dependencies are finish-to-start IDs, separated by commas or semicolons.
2. Enter optimistic (O), most likely (M) and pessimistic (P) durations, with 0 ≤ O ≤ M ≤ P. Run a baseline.
3. Read the distribution and criticality table. A task is critical in a run when it has zero total float in that run.
4. Try reducing the pessimistic estimates of the top three positive scores. The comparison lists exactly what changes and keeps your original inputs.

Every task duration is sampled independently. Beta-PERT uses a beta distribution rescaled to [O,P], with shape parameters 1 + 4(M−O)/(P−O) and 1 + 4(P−M)/(P−O). Triangular sampling uses the same bounds and mode. Equal estimates give a fixed duration. The seed makes a run repeatable; it does not make its assumptions more reliable.

Dates round duration up to whole elapsed days, excluding the start instant. Working days skip Saturdays and Sundays; holidays, shifts, resources, costs, lags, correlations and unlisted risks are absent. The salience score is criticality × (P−O), a discussion prompt rather than a computed marginal benefit. P90−P50 is a percentile gap, not a recommended project or feeding buffer.

The GAO Schedule Assessment Guide explains schedule-risk analysis and its input requirements. For a reference to the chosen distribution, see RiskAMP’s Beta-PERT explanation. Explore the omitted dependence assumption in task delays that happen together.

Use ID, Name, Group, O, M, P, DependsOn. Separate dependency IDs with semicolons. A header row is optional; quoted CSV fields and tabs are supported.

ID,Name,Group,O,M,P,DependsOn
T1,Scope spike,Discovery,1,2,4,
T2,Data contract,Partner,2,3,8,T1

Save stores valid inputs, settings and your narrative under the earlier app's browser key. Export includes those fields too; older task-only JSON still imports. Results are recalculated. Share links contain your inputs and settings in their fragment: anyone receiving the link can read them. Nothing is uploaded by this app.