When is evidence worth waiting for?
Six mountain-festival examples explore waiting, surveys, evidence latency and adaptive stopping. Inspect every policy path in the declared toy decision tree.
Explore evidence and commitment →Inspect a decision model
Sequence, belief & policy lab
Follow one realised path, compare four policy representatives, inspect a scenario tree and frame a recurring management decision around its information cadence.
Open the sequence model →Climate policy simulator
Compare PFA, CFA, VFA, DLA and hybrid representatives using common seeded shocks. Keep world truth separate from belief; inspect benchmarks, paths, action ribbons and R/I/B framing.
Run the climate policy experiment →Frame and learn
Project decision framing
Write the narrative, state, actions, new information, transition rule and objective for a decision problem. Generate a readable summary of your own formulation.
Open the framing worksheet →Two climate decision paths
Step through or play two fictional 2028 paths, inspect state/action/information narratives and export the diagram as SVG. Primary sources provide context for the example.
Explore the two paths →IT project decision tutorial
Work from a software-project narrative to core elements, a proposed mathematical model, policy design, evaluation and iteration. This guide explains a formulation; it does not run it.
Read the IT tutorial →Play and compare
Weekly IT project game
Hire and allocate developers, commit a week's work, then receive uncertain bug and market information. Compare progress, quality, satisfaction and spend in the chart and full decision history.
Play the weekly project game →Climate SDAM snapshot
Inspect preserved path charts, action sequences, a Sankey view and an editable framing tool. Results are stored figures from an unavailable generating solver with unverified coefficients; controls do not rerun that solver.
Inspect the historical report →